Public Figure - Not a Member

Elon Musk

Public Figure

Tesla, SpaceX, X

CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Owner of X (Twitter). Known for ambitious timelines and bold predictions about technology, AI, and humanity's future.

X Profile Tesla

23.7%

Accuracy

487

Predictions Tracked

115

Correct

298

Incorrect

Tracked since Jan 2018

74 pending

89,234 followers

Tracked Predictions

techincorrectJan 2020

Full Self-Driving will be solved by end of 2020

Tesla will achieve Level 5 full autonomy by December 2020

Outcome: FSD remains at Level 2 as of 2024

Submitted by

u/elon_receipts•Source

95% confidenceImmediate

scienceincorrectDec 2021

Starship will reach orbit in 2022

SpaceX Starship will complete orbital flight in 2022

Outcome: First orbital attempt was in April 2023, achieved orbit in 2024

Submitted by

u/space_tracker

80% confidence12 months

Accuracy by Category

Tesla Timelines12%

156 predictions

SpaceX45%

89 predictions

AI Predictions28%

67 predictions

Crypto34%

98 predictions

Twitter/X21%

77 predictions

Recent Predictions

Last 10 resolved predictions

Yearly Performance

2020

28%

2021

31%

2022

19%

2023

22%

2024

24%

Key Insights

Best Category

SpaceX

Worst Category

Tesla Timelines

Avg Confidence

94%