Public Figure - Not a Member
Nate Silver
AuthorSilver Bulletin
Statistician, writer, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Author of 'The Signal and the Noise'. Known for election forecasting and probabilistic thinking.
82.4%
Accuracy
156
Predictions Tracked
129
Correct
21
Incorrect
Tracked since Jan 2019
6 pending
31,247 followers
Tracked Predictions
politicscorrectNov 2024
Trump will win 2024 election
Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election
Outcome: Trump won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes
62% confidenceNov 2024
Accuracy by Category
Elections87%
89 predictions
Sports76%
34 predictions
Economics72%
23 predictions
Tech68%
10 predictions
Recent Predictions
W
W
W
L
W
W
P
W
W
L
Last 10 resolved predictions
Yearly Performance
2020
78%
2021
81%
2022
85%
2023
82%
2024
84%
Key Insights
Best Category
Elections
Worst Category
Tech
Avg Confidence
65%